This study, commissioned by IOM Libya, seeks to examine the interaction between two drivers and disruptors of migration patterns: climate change and food insecurity. As a growing body of reporting has shown, Libya faces an array of climate change effects, both in the long-term and in the immediate term, with increasingly frequent extreme weather events such as floods and heatwaves.1 As scientific literature has also indicated, it is increasingly evident that the impacts of climate change are threatening livelihoods, undermining local resilience, and worsening socio-economic vulnerabilities.

Against this background, examining the linkages between climate change impacts, food insecurity, and migration patterns is a complex undertaking that necessitates an intersectional framework. Drawing upon the conceptual framework developed by Mixed Migration Center (MMC) to explore the idea of mobility in a context of climate change impact,3 the framework illustrates how “climate-related environmental stressors affect mobility outcomes”, and how they directly and indirectly impact the aspiration and capability to migrate. While recognizing that these elements of the framework are interconnected, it nevertheless provides a framing for considering the array of factors that impinge upon migration movements.

Within this conceptual framework, the study focuses on migratory movements into southern Libya by adopting a route-based approach.4 As such, the study seeks to build upon a body of existing studies that have previously examined how food insecurity affects migration patterns in Libya and expands on this body of work by incorporating considerations of climate change effects in the immediate-term and long-term affect migratory movements.